Market Commentary

Brave New World

Brave New World

Post U.S. Election, stocks notched record one-month gains. The election news was quickly drowned out by encouraging vaccine developments, reminding us that dealing with the health and economic crises will continue to trump politics (pun intended).

The markets continue to reward those who commit to a good long-term strategy, even when it seems the world, at times, is falling apart. Global stocks fell over 31% at the low point in March. Now, global stocks are up over 12% YTD, including dividends. The incredible volatility this year reminds us that successful investing doesn’t depend on timing the markets but on finding a strategy that you can stick with.

As the year comes to an end, it’s a good idea to review year-end planning. We discuss waived rules on IRA distributions, Roth conversions, basic gifting, and estate planning.

Political Y2K?

Political Y2K?

Anxiety is high as Americans and the rest of the world await the results of tomorrow’s presidential election. Historically, elections and who wins doesn’t much matter for financial markets. Although this time feels different, we still believe it’s best to stick with your long-term plan and be prepared to withstand the short-term ups and downs.

October Surprise

October Surprise

October in election years usually brings surprises, both political and financial. This year is no different. Fortunately, investment success doesn’t rest on predicting the future.

Despite the shocks and uncertainty, stocks notched another strong quarter as the economy recovers. Bond returns stalled in the third quarter, after strong gains in the first half of the year.

The Big Disconnect

The Big Disconnect

Stocks notched record highs in August despite the virus continuing to weigh on the economy.

How do you explain the disconnect between the economic impact of the virus and swift recovery in stock prices? It’s all about how the Fed rescued the markets – well, almost all.

In the context of a long-term plan, manic swings in asset prices are much less important than the bigger picture – your personal bigger picture.

Real Estate During a Global Pandemic

Real Estate During a Global Pandemic

Including homes, most investors have larger exposure to real estate than they realize. The exposure grows if ownership includes vacation homes, commercial buildings or other investment property. It’s a good idea to take a top down, holistic approach when considering new real estate purchases.

The primary considerations for investors should be whether enough income can be generated from additional direct investment in real estate and if can liquidity be found elsewhere if funds are needed on short notice.

Private real estate is often appealing for its apparent stability. The stock and bond markets, by comparison, can seem unnervingly volatile. Much of real estate’s perceived stability is a result of much lower liquidity, or inability to quickly realize cash proceed from buying and selling. Factoring in the high cost of real estate transactions and ongoing maintenance, taxes, and insurance, the returns are often much lower than a stock and bond portfolio of similar risk.

Not Enough Superlatives

Not Enough Superlatives

The economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis is staggering, resulting in an unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented” to describe many aspects of our current world.

It will take time to recover from the economic fallout of the pandemic, but stocks are already looking toward the eventual recovery. Bond yields remain low, as the Federal reserve is sticking with a policy of ultra-low interest rates.

Investors perceive large technology stocks as the best place to be. However, it is a mistake to extrapolate their past success too far into the future.

In the face of all the uncertainty, it is important to stay grounded in a diversified strategy. That means sticking with a broad basket of stocks and avoiding getting caught in the latest enthusiasm for tech.

The Long View

The Long View

COVID-19 transformed the world in 2020. The most remarkable thing about the financial markets this year is that if you went to sleep in January and woke up at the end of June, you would not know, from looking at your portfolio, that we are in a health pandemic – arguably, the most significant health crisis in 100 years. Yet, the economic and market outlook remains uncertain.

Bull, Bear, or Kangaroo?

Bull, Bear, or Kangaroo?

The swift bounce of the stock market during the second quarter was one of the quickest “recoveries” since 1987’s Black Monday. Once again, the market has provided an excellent example of the importance of staying invested, provided your asset allocation is correct. So, whether or not we have begun a new bull, bear, or what some call a kangaroo market is yet to be determined, and that is principally a result of three factors: 1. the virus, 2. the Federal Reserve, and 3. the recovery.

Is This for Real?

Is This for Real?

The United States is reeling, and the world continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, but it seems as though the markets do not care. The recovery has been swift, but it would be rare for stock prices to continue up in a straight line. Recoveries are rarely one-sided. As financial markets continue to find their way, discounting the improving situation, we recommend staying grounded in your long-term strategy. You don’t need a crystal ball to weather the current situation.

Going Viral

Going Viral

The coronavirus and Middle East turmoil jolted the markets to start 2020, setting back many Wall Street strategists’ outlooks for the year. While the media is hyper-focused on the spreading coronavirus, we take stock of some the positives in the market and some of the risks. It’s a constant battle to combat the apocalyptic thinking that is embedded in our DNA. That makes coming up with a plan important.

The Decade Challenge

The Decade Challenge

2019 capped off a strong decade in financial markets, as the world continued to recover from the 2008-2009 recession. Advances in technology and the companies who brought us these changes were at the heart of a decade of strong financial gains. One implication is the S&P 500 is now less diversified. We believe it’s important more than ever to diversify beyond large US stocks. The future remains unknowable. It’s more productive to invest in preparation than in prediction.

Another Dangerfield Rally

Another Dangerfield Rally

Investors remain skeptical of this year’s double digit gains in stocks, as typically defensive sectors of the market lead the way. Strong returns to bonds have driven much of the financial market’s gains this year, leading some to wonder if it is all real.

Many wonder if we will see a repeat of last year’s fourth quarter correction in stocks. While that is unlikely, investors in stocks should always be prepared for an unexpected ten percent drop at any moment.

With less than two months left in 2019, now is the time to think about changes in your life ahead of the calendar-year rollover.