Neil

A Yin and Yang Economy

A Yin and Yang Economy

Investors are grappling with two contrasting worries that inflation is too high, and the economy will weaken.

The challenge for central bankers is to cool inflation without upsetting the economy, which has been difficult to achieve in the past.

When the market hits a rough patch, it’s important to stick to your plan. It may also be worth looking for opportunities for tax-loss harvesting or a Roth conversion.

Unusually Good Year

Unusually Good Year

2021 was an odd year. The stock market looked through all the worries, returning double-digits for the third straight year and finishing at a “cheaper” valuation than at the beginning. A rise in bond yields and a lower valuation on stocks implies better-expected returns, but anything can happen in a year’s time. There is usually at least one 10% correction in stocks every year. That may cause indigestion, but it shouldn’t upset your financial plans.

Inflation is 6.2% - Should You be Worried?

Inflation is 6.2% - Should You be Worried?

A media blitz reporting a breakout of the new Omicron variant triggered a selloff in stocks and risky assets in November. The bond market isn’t concerned with long-run high inflation. This is in contrast to the latest inflation reports in the media. The bout of inflation seen today is largely a result of a jump in the price of goods relative to services. We believe it’s unlikely to continue.

Relationship Problems

Relationship Problems

Global stocks dipped in September, ending a run of steady gains. Bond yields rose sharply in September, driven by real yields. While inflation and the debt ceiling are getting a lot of attention, the move in the markets is more about a wind down of monetary support than the debt ceiling or inflation. Financial markets often behave in unexpected ways. What’s important is the unexpected market moves do not derail your long-term strategy.

A Wild Trip

A Wild Trip

The last twelve months have been a wild ride, as the financial markets echoed the emotional ups and downs of a challenging year. The battle against the pandemic and the economy are on better footing. Still, worries persist about what may be next for stocks and bonds. Tomorrow’s challenges will be different than today’s. Even though they are unknown, we have the tools to learn, adapt, and survive.

The 2020 Stress Test

The 2020 Stress Test

Post U.S. Election, stocks notched record one-month gains. The election news was quickly drowned out by encouraging vaccine developments, reminding us that dealing with the health and economic crises will continue to trump politics (pun intended).

The markets continue to reward those who commit to a good long-term strategy, even when it seems the world, at times, is falling apart. Global stocks fell over 31% at the low point in March. Now, global stocks are up over 12% YTD, including dividends. The incredible volatility this year reminds us that successful investing doesn’t depend on timing the markets but on finding a strategy that you can stick with.

As the year comes to an end, it’s a good idea to review year-end planning. We discuss waived rules on IRA distributions, Roth conversions, basic gifting, and estate planning.

Brave New World

Brave New World

Post U.S. Election, stocks notched record one-month gains. The election news was quickly drowned out by encouraging vaccine developments, reminding us that dealing with the health and economic crises will continue to trump politics (pun intended).

The markets continue to reward those who commit to a good long-term strategy, even when it seems the world, at times, is falling apart. Global stocks fell over 31% at the low point in March. Now, global stocks are up over 12% YTD, including dividends. The incredible volatility this year reminds us that successful investing doesn’t depend on timing the markets but on finding a strategy that you can stick with.

As the year comes to an end, it’s a good idea to review year-end planning. We discuss waived rules on IRA distributions, Roth conversions, basic gifting, and estate planning.

Political Y2K?

Political Y2K?

Anxiety is high as Americans and the rest of the world await the results of tomorrow’s presidential election. Historically, elections and who wins doesn’t much matter for financial markets. Although this time feels different, we still believe it’s best to stick with your long-term plan and be prepared to withstand the short-term ups and downs.

October Surprise

October Surprise

October in election years usually brings surprises, both political and financial. This year is no different. Fortunately, investment success doesn’t rest on predicting the future.

Despite the shocks and uncertainty, stocks notched another strong quarter as the economy recovers. Bond returns stalled in the third quarter, after strong gains in the first half of the year.

Politics: What Is It Good For?

Politics: What Is It Good For?

Heading into the November Election, it’s common for investors to be concerned about how the stock market will perform. Historical stock market performance suggests the market doesn’t really care which party takes office. Still, the economy and profitability are much bigger than the politics at any moment. That is still true today, as hard as that may be to believe.

Not Enough Superlatives

Not Enough Superlatives

The economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis is staggering, resulting in an unprecedented use of the word “unprecedented” to describe many aspects of our current world.

It will take time to recover from the economic fallout of the pandemic, but stocks are already looking toward the eventual recovery. Bond yields remain low, as the Federal reserve is sticking with a policy of ultra-low interest rates.

Investors perceive large technology stocks as the best place to be. However, it is a mistake to extrapolate their past success too far into the future.

In the face of all the uncertainty, it is important to stay grounded in a diversified strategy. That means sticking with a broad basket of stocks and avoiding getting caught in the latest enthusiasm for tech.