Market Commentary

Nowhere to Hide

Nowhere to Hide

The first six months of 2022 have been painful for investors, but there are some silver linings to the market’s selloff.

It is important to maintain perspective when it comes to the financial markets; even with the selloff this year, most investors have benefited from past gains.

Investment success is determined by how one reacts to turmoil and market selloffs; maintaining composure gives the best odds of getting through a downturn.

A Yin and Yang Economy

A Yin and Yang Economy

Investors are grappling with two contrasting worries that inflation is too high, and the economy will weaken.

The challenge for central bankers is to cool inflation without upsetting the economy, which has been difficult to achieve in the past.

When the market hits a rough patch, it’s important to stick to your plan. It may also be worth looking for opportunities for tax-loss harvesting or a Roth conversion.

April's Fall

April's Fall

Investor sentiment is sitting at lows last seen in the global financial crisis as inflation, geopolitics, and China’s Covid-19 policy have consumed markets. In turbulent times like now, our emotions can cloud our rationality. Time in the market is more productive than timing the market. Investing success comes from focusing on what one can control, particularly asset allocation and investment strategy.

Buy the Dip?

Buy the Dip?

January was a bruising month for global stocks, particularly U.S. indices, with markets focused on uncertainty around monetary policy. Given recent steady gains, volatility feels unnerving, but it is important to remember that volatility is part of a normal, healthy financial market. Higher interest rates are not a bad thing for stocks; stocks performed well in past periods of higher rates. In times like these, it is important to remain anchored in a long-term investment strategy.

Unusually Good Year

Unusually Good Year

2021 was an odd year. The stock market looked through all the worries, returning double-digits for the third straight year and finishing at a “cheaper” valuation than at the beginning. A rise in bond yields and a lower valuation on stocks implies better-expected returns, but anything can happen in a year’s time. There is usually at least one 10% correction in stocks every year. That may cause indigestion, but it shouldn’t upset your financial plans.

Inflation is 6.2% - Should You be Worried?

Inflation is 6.2% - Should You be Worried?

A media blitz reporting a breakout of the new Omicron variant triggered a selloff in stocks and risky assets in November. The bond market isn’t concerned with long-run high inflation. This is in contrast to the latest inflation reports in the media. The bout of inflation seen today is largely a result of a jump in the price of goods relative to services. We believe it’s unlikely to continue.

October's Rebound

October's Rebound

Global stocks had their best month since November of 2020, rebounding from a September pullback. The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened on heightened concerns of sooner-than-expected interest rate increases. The financial markets continue to eye global central bank moves, focusing on the tapering of asset purchases and plans for interest rate hikes. Central banks will continue to dominate the near-term narrative but maintaining an appropriate long-term investment strategy will continue to serve investors well.

Relationship Problems

Relationship Problems

Global stocks dipped in September, ending a run of steady gains. Bond yields rose sharply in September, driven by real yields. While inflation and the debt ceiling are getting a lot of attention, the move in the markets is more about a wind down of monetary support than the debt ceiling or inflation. Financial markets often behave in unexpected ways. What’s important is the unexpected market moves do not derail your long-term strategy.

Wall Street's Wall of Worry

Wall Street's Wall of Worry

Global stocks continued their steady march upward, adding to already strong year-to-date returns and shrugging off multiple headwinds. The smooth ascent may appear out of touch with reality, but investors, accompanied by a strong economic backdrop and central bank support, are learning to live with the virus. So far, the focus of investors has been vaccines over variants; however, the impact on the global recovery due to the delta variant and any possible future variant is uncertain. With the global market increasingly concentrated in select U.S. companies, we believe international markets are more important than ever.

Reddit Rebellion

Reddit Rebellion

January had no shortage of headlines; however, audiences were captivated by a merry band of retail traders strapped with low-cost trading apps and Reddit accounts attempting to “short squeeze” hedge funds. Although entertaining, it can end badly for those late to the party. Markets continue to digest information regarding monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID vaccination rollout. Good planning and appropriate asset allocation continue to serve investors well over the long-term.

The 2020 Stress Test

The 2020 Stress Test

Post U.S. Election, stocks notched record one-month gains. The election news was quickly drowned out by encouraging vaccine developments, reminding us that dealing with the health and economic crises will continue to trump politics (pun intended).

The markets continue to reward those who commit to a good long-term strategy, even when it seems the world, at times, is falling apart. Global stocks fell over 31% at the low point in March. Now, global stocks are up over 12% YTD, including dividends. The incredible volatility this year reminds us that successful investing doesn’t depend on timing the markets but on finding a strategy that you can stick with.

As the year comes to an end, it’s a good idea to review year-end planning. We discuss waived rules on IRA distributions, Roth conversions, basic gifting, and estate planning.

2021 Tax and Planning Update

2021 Tax and Planning Update

Post U.S. Election, stocks notched record one-month gains. The election news was quickly drowned out by encouraging vaccine developments, reminding us that dealing with the health and economic crises will continue to trump politics (pun intended).

The markets continue to reward those who commit to a good long-term strategy, even when it seems the world, at times, is falling apart. Global stocks fell over 31% at the low point in March. Now, global stocks are up over 12% YTD, including dividends. The incredible volatility this year reminds us that successful investing doesn’t depend on timing the markets but on finding a strategy that you can stick with.

As the year comes to an end, it’s a good idea to review year-end planning. We discuss waived rules on IRA distributions, Roth conversions, basic gifting, and estate planning.