The United States is reeling, and the world continues to battle the COVID-19 pandemic, but it seems as though the markets do not care. The recovery has been swift, but it would be rare for stock prices to continue up in a straight line. Recoveries are rarely one-sided. As financial markets continue to find their way, discounting the improving situation, we recommend staying grounded in your long-term strategy. You don’t need a crystal ball to weather the current situation.
Tumultuous Quarter
Market and Strategy Update
Contagion
Going Viral
The coronavirus and Middle East turmoil jolted the markets to start 2020, setting back many Wall Street strategists’ outlooks for the year. While the media is hyper-focused on the spreading coronavirus, we take stock of some the positives in the market and some of the risks. It’s a constant battle to combat the apocalyptic thinking that is embedded in our DNA. That makes coming up with a plan important.
The Decade Challenge
2019 capped off a strong decade in financial markets, as the world continued to recover from the 2008-2009 recession. Advances in technology and the companies who brought us these changes were at the heart of a decade of strong financial gains. One implication is the S&P 500 is now less diversified. We believe it’s important more than ever to diversify beyond large US stocks. The future remains unknowable. It’s more productive to invest in preparation than in prediction.
Sayonara 60/40?
Market Timing is Dead. Long Live Market Timing!
Another Dangerfield Rally
Investors remain skeptical of this year’s double digit gains in stocks, as typically defensive sectors of the market lead the way. Strong returns to bonds have driven much of the financial market’s gains this year, leading some to wonder if it is all real.
Many wonder if we will see a repeat of last year’s fourth quarter correction in stocks. While that is unlikely, investors in stocks should always be prepared for an unexpected ten percent drop at any moment.
With less than two months left in 2019, now is the time to think about changes in your life ahead of the calendar-year rollover.
Seesaw Quarter
Souring Mood
Have We Won Yet?
Escalating trade tensions triggered a sharp pullback in August, giving up July’s gains. Global stocks were up 16.6% YTD as of July 31, and now show 12.1% gains through August 6. Now is the time to re-evaluate your tolerance for ups and downs in the market. Get a plan, keep it simple, and stay invested. Those who can stick with a long-term plan will continue to be rewarded.
Who knew?
Almost no one predicted the surprisingly strong 2019 year-to-date returns for stocks and bonds. The stock market is currently indifferent about a trade war or recession, while declining long-term bond yields indicate the bond market takes a different view. Most things investors worry about are not really important. What is important are the four “deep risks.”